The Wells Brothers' Wartime Assesment: January 2002

Phase 1: Going Well

To an extent, the war is going well.

• The Taliban have been removed from power.
• Osama bin Laden is on the run.
• A new government, which seems to have popular support has been put in place.
• The new Afghan leader, Hamid Karzai, seems to be a reasonable man, and is respected by most Afghans.
• At least some Taliban and al Qaeda leaders have been captured.
• US casualties have been light.
• Afghan civilian casualties have been relatively light, although we must still regard each civilian casualty as a loss.
• A major famine has been averted.

Phase 1: Remaining Goals

That said, the war is not over by any means.

In Afghanistan, there is still work to be done.

• Osama bin Laden is apparently still alive and on the loose. The United States cannot rest until this changes.
• Humanitarian relief must be continued and enhanced. In addition to being the right and moral thing to do, it's also in the interest of the United States. If we save the Afghans from famine, they'll remember. If we don't, they'll remember that too. Part of our "draining the swamp" strategy depends on eliminating the desparate conditions that lead people to think that terrorism is the only solution. Democracy, justice, and accurate information are critical to this as well.

Subsequent Phases

Sadly, even if we correct all of the above situations, the war will still not be over. Terrorism still thrives in other countries. All terrorists are the enemy. Until terrorism is eliminated everywhere, the war is not won.

Not only must we kill or cage all terrorists, we must eliminate the root causes of terrorism. In general, happy prosperous people in democratic nations don't become terrorists. When grievances, real or percieved, are not addressed, people sometimes wrongly think that terrorism is the only solution.

Some nations, especially dictatorial ones, often tolerate terrorism, or even actively use it as an instrument of state policy. They feel that terrorism is the only method to deal with a superpower. We must disabuse them of this notion, by force if necessary.

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